Elgin, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

120
FXUS63 KLOT 160022
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
722 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will persist this evening. Some
  storms will be severe, particularly across central IL into
  northwestern IN through 9 PM this evening.

- Periods of accumulating snow and blowing snow will set the
  stage for Blizzard conditions across northwestern IL overnight
  into Monday morning. We have thus opted to upgrade to a
  Blizzard Warning across parts of northwestern IL. A Winter
  Weather Advisory remains in effect for areas along and
  northwest of the I-55 corridor overnight through Monday
  morning.

- Wind-whipped snow showers may develop across the area Monday
  afternoon, leading to locally hazardous travel conditions.

- A period of cold temperatures is expected Monday and Tuesday,
  with overnight wind chills ranging from 5 to 10 below,
  especially Tuesday morning.

- A clipper system will likely bring a period of snow to the
  area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Thereafter, a warming
  trend will commence through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

We just recently updated the forecast to upgrade our Winter
Storm Warning to a Blizzard Warning. We also included Dekalb and
McHenry counties in this warning. We also expanded the Winter
Weather advisory anther row of counties southeastward along the
I-55 corridor.

The storm system is tracking farther south then originally
thought. Overall, this adds concern that snowfall amounts may
end up a bit higher than previous forecasts, particularly across
the warned area where several hours of wind gusts of 45 to 50
mph will combine with the snow overnight into Monday morning to
produce blizzard conditions. With this in mind, and the fact
that there are numerous upstream obs across IA and parts of MO
that are reporting 1/4 or less VSBYs, felt the path of least
regret was to pull the trigger on the upgrade.

The end times of the winter headlines run from mid to late this
evening through early Monday afternoon.

KJB

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Through Monday night...

A strong and very dynamic early Spring season storm system
currently shifting into western IL this afternoon, will deepen
to near 980 mb late tonight into Monday as it lifts northward
across Lower Michigan.

Hazards associated with this system late this afternoon through
Monday include:
- Another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
  through early evening in advance of an approaching cold front.
  Some of these storms could be severe, with damaging winds in
  excess of 60 mph the main threat.
- Rain mixing with a brief period of sleet and freezing rain
  before transitioning to snow from west to east across the area
  Sunday evening and night.
- Turning much colder and very windy tonight into Monday, with
  considerable blowing and drifting snow, with possible near
  blizzard conditions at times, particularly across northwestern
  IL late tonight into Monday morning.


Storm and Severe Threat This afternoon and evening:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to track east-northeastward
into northern IL this afternoon. Thus far, these storms have
remained sub severe, likely owing to limited instability. We
will have to continue to monitor the shallow convective activity
farther to the southwest in advance of the approaching cold
front. This activity is expected to shift eastward across the
area into early this evening. Extensive cloud cover, and only
modest dewpoints into the low 50s, will continue to curtail
destabilization ahead of this activity. However, given the
continued presence of strong southwesterly flow off the surface,
the potential will exist for some localized strong wind gusts
in excess of 60 mph with this shallow convection, particularly
in areas south of I-80 across eastern IL into northwestern IN.


Winter Weather Threat tonight into Monday:

Rain will transition to the snow from west to east this evening
as a much colder airmass quickly spills in across the area
along the backside of the deepening surface low moving into
Lower Michigan. The transition is likely to be accompanied by an
hour or so period of a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain,
though the main story will be the accumulating and blowing snow
expected tonight into Monday morning, particularly across
northwestern IL (Rockford area), where a Winter Storm Warning is
in effect. In this region, steepening low and mid-level lapse
rates will support some higher rates of snow (up to an inch per
hour) for a period late this evening into the overnight hours as
the 700 mb low tracks northeastward into south central WI.
While initially the snow will be wet, a rapidly cooling column
will result in a transition towards a drier (more blowable)
snowfall late tonight into Monday morning.

This is important, as northwesterly wind gusts will become
progressively stronger overnight as the surface low deepens down
around 980 mb across northern lower Michigan. With wind gusts
of 45 to 50 mph likely by early Monday morning, there continues
to be concern for a period of near blizzard conditions late
tonight into Monday morning. The worst conditions across the
warned area will be from roughly 11 PM tonight through 10 AM
Monday morning. We continue to hit the wording for near blizzard
conditions hard in the Winter Storm Warning, and we cannot rule
out the need for a an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning.

East and southeast of the Winter Storm Warning, a Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect as far southeast as areas near the
I-55 corridor tonight through Monday morning for snow and
blowing snow. Snowfall amounts in this area will be lighter, and
will taper with southeastward extent. Accordingly, amounts are
generally expected to range from 2 to 4 inches far northwest, to
1 to 3 inches across the southeastern part of the advisory
area. Hazardous travel conditions will also be likely in the
advisory area due to the snow and blowing snow on these
increasing northwest winds.

As the surface low begins to move out of the area Monday
afternoon, we will see the snow begin to taper off across
northern IL. However, steep low-level lapse rates through the
DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone) will continue to support scattered
snow showers and squalls into the mid to late afternoon hours,
with flurries potentially even continuing into Monday night.

KJB

Tuesday through Saturday:

The unseasonably cold start to the day on Tuesday will lower
the ceiling for the day`s high temperatures, with temperatures
presently favored to peak only in the 20s. With expansive
surface high pressure shuffling its way eastward across the
region, no precipitation is expected during the daytime hours.

A fast-moving clipper-type shortwave diving southeastward out
of Alberta will arrive at our doorstep Tuesday night. Nearly all
members of the 00Z EPS and GEFS output a modest amount of QPF
across our forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
which would translate to measurable snowfall with air
temperatures not expected to rise above freezing until sometime
during the mid to late morning on Wednesday. Some ensemble
spread remains with the strength of the inbound wave and how
much moisture it will have to work with, but overall, this
doesn`t have the look of a blockbuster snowfall event.

A strong upper-level ridge initially centered off the California
coast will reposition itself eastward over the Desert Southwest
for the latter half of the week. This will kick off a warming
trend here locally through the end of the workweek as the
associated thermal ridge expands eastward, with highs in the 50s
and 60s expected to make a return.

The jet stream draped around the ridge`s northern periphery
will also get nudged eastward, which will steer any subsequent
clipper waves/systems emanating out of Canada more to our east.
That said, one additional clipper shortwave may still get close
enough to our area Wednesday night into Thursday for another
round of precipitation to occur here. This outcome is reflected
only in a minority of Grand Ensemble members at this time, so
made no changes to the dry NBM forecast at this juncture.

Ogorek

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Rain, heavy at times, with some embedded thunder expected
  early this evening.
- Rain will change to snow from northwest to southeast this
  evening into the early overnight hours.
- Snow, heavy at times, is expected overnight into early Monday
  morning before tapering off to lighter snow showers/flurries.
- Strong northwest winds will result in blowing and drifting
  snow and reduced visibilities overnight into Monday.

Powerful storm system will continue to produce a wide variety of
inclement weather over the next 24 hours. For the immediate
Chicago terminals, rain, heavy at times, with some embedded
thunder will gradually taper off early this evening. Rain will
gradually change to snow from northwest to southeast across the
terminals this evening into the early overnight hours. The
heaviest snowfall rates are expected overnight, perhaps
lingering into the early morning hours Monday. Very strong
northwest winds will result in blowing and drifting snow,
especially late tonight into Monday morning as the snow type
becomes less wet and more apt to be blown around.

Steadier accumulating snow is expected to end during the early-
mid morning hours Monday, but some snow showers/flurries could
linger through much of the day with much lesser threat for
accumulations. Snow threat should end by early Monday evening
with winds gradually decreasing Monday night.

- Izzi

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for ILZ003-ILZ004-
     ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for ILZ006-
     ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ103.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday for
     ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108.

IN...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for the IL and IN
     nearshore waters.

&&

$$

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